San Juan – Estudios Técnicos, Inc. warned that the global economy may be entering the early stages of a broader energy crisis driven by rapidly declining oil reserves and escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict involving Iran.
According to a recent analysis highlighted by the firm, the most severe economic consequences could begin to materialize as early as June.
The report points to a historic collapse in global oil reserves, which reportedly declined by nearly 200 million barrels in a single month. Analysts also warned that the partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted global oil supply, with some experts projecting oil prices could surpass $200 per barrel if conditions worsen.
Although the full economic impact has not yet been fully reflected in the United States economy, the analysis notes that oil shocks historically affect economic growth with a delay, increasing the risk of global recession and persistent inflation.
The report also highlighted mounting pressure on consumers and businesses as rising fuel prices reduce purchasing power and impact sectors such as airlines, transportation and logistics. Real wages could continue to decline if energy costs remain elevated.
Additionally, the analysis warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and households and businesses begin to assume the energy shock will persist long term, economic behavior could rapidly shift toward caution and reduced spending.
Despite mitigating factors such as accumulated reserves, fiscal spending and growth linked to artificial intelligence, the report concludes that the global economy faces a highly vulnerable scenario if the energy crisis deepens further.
For Puerto Rico, the implications could be significant given the island’s dependence on imported fuels and energy-related costs.
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