A Democratic majority can force votes and probe refunds, but the president and courts set Puerto Rico’s tariff map
Part of a post-election series today exploring the impact on business in Puerto Rico.
Democrats tied tariffs to affordability on the campaign trail, and Ron Wyden, expected to chair Senate Finance, pledged on Nov. 4 to end the administration’s tariffs, a promise celebrated in Puerto Rico. Delivering, though, is another matter.
The Supreme Court already threw out the broadest duties, ruling 6-3 on Feb. 20 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs.
What remains rests on statutes that, as Baker McKenzie noted Nov. 4, need no congressional approval: Section 232 national-security tariffs and Section 301 duties, including the 10% to 12.5% forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies that took effect July 24.
What the new majority can actually do
A bill rolling back tariffs would face a veto, and an override takes two-thirds of both chambers, of which the 56-seat Democratic majority will likely be four votes short. Their realistic tools are hearings, subpoenas, spending leverage and forced votes, the playbook Ways and Means Democrat Richard Neal sketched in February by floating discharge petitions on Brazil tariffs.
Unless, that is, at least four Republicans vote with the Dems, not an entirely unlikely scenario, given the traditional Republican position in favor of open trade and minimal tariffs.
The most tangible fight may be over money already paid. Puerto Rico paid $919.7 million in tariffs in 2025, nearly four times the 2024 amount, according to the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics. On Oct. 8, the Court of International Trade certified a class of importers who have not sued, and law firm Davis Wright Tremaine notes the window to file individually runs at least through Feb. 4, 2027.
Baker McKenzie advises clients to plan for persistently elevated tariffs, with courts as the main check over the next six to 12 months.
The industry map for Puerto Rico
The island’s anchor industry faces the steepest rate. A 100% Section 232 tariff on patented drugs took effect July 31, with lower rates for allied economies and companies that sign onshoring and pricing deals.
That has drawn investment, including Amgen’s nearly $1 billion commitment to its Juncos plant, but the Puerto Rico Planning Board estimates tariffs raised pharmaceutical costs by $190.5 million, with a total economic impact of $337.3 million.
Medical devices remain under an open Section 232 investigation with no tariff yet, a risk for a sector that imports 54% of its inputs, according to the Planning Board. Construction faces steel and aluminum duties of up to 50% and 10% on lumber with billions in reconstruction work still ahead.
Food is more exposed than it looks. The effective tariff rate on agricultural imports jumped from 1.24% to 7.24% in 2025, the Institute of Statistics found, and the Dominican Republic, a key supplier, now faces 12.5%.
That improves the economics of import substitution, though price alone rarely overcomes the habits that send buyers off-island. Relief in 2027 is likelier to come from courts, refunds and negotiated carve-outs than from new law, which makes the Puerto Rico Coalition’s tariff agenda less about repeal and more about exemptions.
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