México — BBVA has lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico in 2026, reducing its projection from 1.8% to 1.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) amid weaker investment, slower consumer spending and continued economic uncertainty. Speaking at a press conference Thursday, Saidé Salazar, principal economist at BBVA Research Mexico, said the country is currently growing […]
México — BBVA has lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico in 2026, reducing its projection from 1.8% to 1.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) amid weaker investment, slower consumer spending and continued economic uncertainty.
Speaking at a press conference Thursday, Saidé Salazar, principal economist at BBVA Research Mexico, said the country is currently growing “at three different speeds,” reflecting contrasting trends in domestic and external demand.
According to Salazar, demand from the United States for Mexican goods and industrial inputs has remained relatively resilient this year, supporting exports. However, domestic demand has shown weaker momentum, with sluggish growth in both investment and consumption.
“The underlying weakness of domestic demand will persist through the second half of the year,” Salazar said. “We are seeing moderation in consumer spending and a significant contraction in gross fixed investment.”
Despite the downward revision, BBVA expects Mexico’s economy to experience a gradual recovery in 2027, supported by reduced trade uncertainty and progress in public-private partnership projects.
Regarding the second half of 2026, Salazar noted that the economic boost expected from the FIFA World Cup, which Mexico will co-host with the United States and Canada, is likely to be temporary despite the optimism surrounding the event.
She also highlighted the strength of Mexico’s export sector, particularly in industries linked to artificial intelligence-related investment.
BBVA Mexico Chief Economist Carlos Serrano added that inflation, which stood at 3.94% in May, has behaved “quite well” in recent months. He also expressed confidence that the Bank of Mexico has likely concluded its interest-rate cutting cycle.
On the international front, Serrano said energy markets may take up to two months to stabilize despite this week’s peace agreement between the United States and Iran. As a result, he expects oil prices to remain elevated for several more weeks.
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