The producers’ group now sees global demand growing by just 0.78 million barrels a day this year.
OPEC on Monday lowered its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the third consecutive month, cutting it to 0.78 million barrels per day (bpd) — 19% below the figure it calculated in June.
The monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), published in Vienna, now projects the world will burn an average of 105.94 million bpd of crude this year, down from the 106.13 million bpd it expected a month ago.
It is the third consecutive downward revision from the organization’s analysts, made against the backdrop of an oil market rattled by the war in Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and heavy volatility in crude prices.
Even so, OPEC reiterated its optimistic view of the global economy, insisting it will grow at a “healthy” pace of 3.1% this year and 3.2% next year.
Looking further out, the organization forecasts the oil market will recover or normalize next year, projecting 2027 demand growth of nearly 2 million bpd, bringing the average to 107.8 million bpd.
On the supply side, OPEC expects output from outside the OPEC+ alliance (OPEC and its allies) to rise by 0.6 million bpd in 2026, to 54.84 million bpd. “Brazil, the U.S., Canada and Argentina are expected to be the main drivers of liquids production growth,” the report states. Another 0.6 million bpd will be added in 2027, with additional supply coming mainly from Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina, the document adds.
Meanwhile, the crisis triggered by hostilities in the Middle East has disrupted the market, affecting shipping freight costs and the imports and exports of various countries, as well as crude prices themselves.
China’s oil imports, for example, fell to 7.8 million bpd in May — 17%, or 1.6 million bpd, lower than the previous month, “amid measures to limit the impact of disruptions to trade flows,” the report notes, while the year-over-year decline was 29%.
For the Asian giant, Russia has cemented its position as the top crude supplier, at 1.9 million bpd, or 25% of total imports, followed by Saudi Arabia at 1.3 million bpd (17%) and Brazil at 1.25 million bpd (16%).
Following the ceasefire and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, crude prices retreated sharply in June, returning to pre-conflict levels — though this week they have resumed climbing as fighting has flared up again.
OPEC’s reference basket sold last month at an average of $89.75 a barrel, $24.80 below May’s average, according to the report. The average price of Brent crude, the European benchmark, was $84.43 ($19.28 below May), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, fell $16.72 to $81.79.
In June, investors bet “on a swift easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and on improved supply conditions,” OPEC’s analysts explained.
