Updated monthly model from Foundation for Puerto Rico tracks spending and lodging demand, giving industry leaders faster readings
Puerto Rico’s visitor economy is projected to generate nearly $7.9 billion in direct spending in 2026, a 4.2% increase over last year, even as airport passenger traffic declines. The projection comes from a new economic performance model developed by Foundation for Puerto Rico (FPR).
These are 2026 estimates and projections, not final annual results. The model also puts tourism employment at about 126,000 jobs, a 3.3% increase from a year earlier. That figure includes jobs added recently.
The model offers a more detailed picture of tourism’s economic performance than FPR’s earlier work. It produces monthly spending and visitation projections by combining hotel and short-term rental demand, lodging prices, visitor arrival patterns and spending across more than 60 categories.
“We wanted to create a model that would allow a deeper dive into visitor spending behavior and also take advantage of the technology that we have around us,” said Kailee McCutchan, research and data analyst at FPR, in an exclusive interview with Caribbean Business.
Previous FPR models produced annual estimates only. This one uses Microsoft Fabric, a data platform that integrates information from multiple sources, so FPR can update its estimates monthly instead of waiting for year-end results, McCutchan said.
Estimates that sharpen through the year
For months without actual data, researchers use patterns from previous years to estimate visitor activity and project annual spending before the year ends. As reported figures become available, the model replaces its estimates with them, so the picture grows more accurate through the year.
The model is designed as a buffer against economic uncertainty by giving industry leaders a faster read on changes in visitor demand and spending.
“From a business perspective, whoever has the most updated and accurate information can make better decisions. Right now, the industry has some data with a three-month lag before it is available to the public. If we have a tool that is updated monthly, people will know what is going on month by month, and they can make faster decisions,” said Francis Pérez, research manager at FPR.
What the model shows for 2026
Among the study’s main findings, visitor spending is projected to rise 4.2%, and overnight visitors are projected to increase 2.6%. Average daily spending per visitor is $274.50, up 1.2% from a year earlier. Lodging revenue rose 6% from January through September 2026, and leisure and hospitality employment rose 5% over the same period. Passenger traffic at the San Juan airport fell about 3% year to date.
The model applies a 1.5 economic multiplier, meaning that each dollar spent on the island generates additional activity through indirect and induced effects, such as transportation, retail, suppliers and other local businesses. Applied to $7.9 billion in direct spending, that yields about $11.8 billion in total economic activity.
Of that total, the model estimates that $9.1 billion is retained in Puerto Rico and $2.7 billion leaks off-island through imports and profits sent abroad. The retained figure is a preliminary estimate, but it shows how much tourism contributes to the broader economy, which suggests that investment in the sector should be among the government’s top priorities.
A decade of growth
Looking ahead, the model projects growth through 2030. Annual visitor spending is projected to rise about 5% from 2027 through 2030, and overnight visitors about 4% a year. On those assumptions, spending could approach $9.6 billion by 2030, and overnight visitors could reach 6.7 million.
That outlook sits below FPR’s earlier published forecast. Its 2025 report projected that the visitor economy would surpass $10 billion in direct economic impact by 2028 and approach $13 billion by 2030. Readers should weigh the new figures against that earlier view. A monthly model is only as useful as its assumptions, and its value lies in how quickly those assumptions are revised as actual data arrives.
As Puerto Rico seeks to expand the economic benefits of tourism, FPR’s new model aims to show how visitor spending turns into economic activity and to help industry leaders track demand and assess the sector’s contribution throughout the year.
